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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.Trump rang the opening bell at the NYSE, and US President-elect Donald Trump rang the opening bell at the new york Stock Exchange on Thursday. On that day, he was named "Person of the Year" twice by Time magazine. It is reported that he is the first president-elect to "ring the bell" on the New York Stock Exchange after Ronald Reagan.Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)

Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank: Strengthen the prevention and resolution of risks in the fields of real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank, told reporters that it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and resolution of risks in the real estate field and small and medium-sized financial institutions under the circumstances that a clear plan has been issued for the resolution of local government debt risks and targeted measures have been taken. (SSE)The director of the Federal Aviation Administration will step down early on January 20th. On December 12th, local time, the Federal Aviation Administration said that the director of the Federal Aviation Administration, Mike Whitaker, will step down after President-elect Trump took office on January 20th. It is reported that Whitaker was confirmed for a five-year term in October 2023. In addition, Katie Thomson, deputy director of the Federal Aviation Administration of the United States, will step down on January 10th, and Mark House, assistant director of finance and management of the agency, will be the senior acting official of the agency during the transition period.Accidents happen frequently. Our embassy reminds China compatriots in Thailand to participate in high-risk tourism projects cautiously. On the 12th, the China Embassy in Thailand issued a document reminding China compatriots in Thailand to participate in high-risk tourism projects cautiously. The Embassy said that a China compatriot who came to Thailand to participate in paragliding recently had an accident. Since the beginning of this year, several China compatriots have had accidents due to their participation in high-risk sports or recreational projects. The Embassy of China in Thailand would like to remind our compatriots in Thailand to have a firm sense of risk. When choosing tourism projects, please comprehensively consider the qualifications of the project company, the quality of equipment and facilities, transportation, medical assistance and supporting services. Fully consider the possible hidden risks, combined with their own physical condition and reasonable judgment, paragliding, jungle leap, snorkeling, upstream, cave exploration and other projects have higher risks. If you really need to participate, please choose a regular travel agency or project organization, fully understand the terms of the agreement and sign a formal contract, receive technical training, wear life-saving equipment and abide by relevant regulations. It is recommended to buy personal accident insurance. In case of unexpected circumstances, please call the police in Thailand for help as soon as possible, and contact the embassy or consulate in Thailand to minimize losses.

Sullivan, US National Security Adviser: I have had a good discussion with my successor to ensure a smooth handover.The director of the Federal Aviation Administration will step down on Trump's swearing-in day, and the director of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) plans to step down on January 20, Trump's presidential swearing-in day. In a letter to employees issued by the FAA Information Office, Michael Whitaker announced his decision to leave. Whitaker has only been in office for more than a year. In October 2023, his nomination as director of FAA was unanimously approved by the Senate. Mark House, Assistant Director of Finance and Management of FAA, will serve as Acting Deputy Director.WTI crude oil fell by 1.0% in the day to 69.17 USD/barrel.